Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 19 · 18:45 · Paris Saint Germain vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 63%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain63%73%−10
OursMarket
Draw20%16%+4
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais17%11%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 67% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 89% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 27% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 84% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 87% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
WinWinWinWinWin
- Apr 14 · at Liverpool (A)2-0
- Apr 8 · v Liverpool (H)2-0
- Apr 3 · v Toulouse (H)3-1
- Mar 21 · at Nice (A)4-0
- Mar 17 · at Chelsea (A)3-0
Olympique Lyonnais
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Apr 12 · v Lorient (H)2-0
- Apr 5 · at Angers SCO (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Monaco (H)1-2
- Mar 19 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-2
- Mar 15 · at Le Havre (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Paris Saint Germain form·Olympique Lyonnais form·Head-to-head record