Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 8 · 19:45 · Paris Saint Germain vs Olympique Marseille
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 52%
A 26% away win. The market says 15%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain52%66%−14
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Olympique Marseille26%15%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 65% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 85% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 34% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 81% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Feb 1 · at Strasbourg (A)2-1
- Jan 28 · v Newcastle United (H)1-1
- Jan 23 · at Auxerre (A)1-0
- Jan 20 · at Sporting CP (A)1-2
- Jan 16 · v LOSC Lille (H)3-0
Olympique Marseille
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Feb 3 · v Rennes (H)3-0
- Jan 31 · at Paris (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · at Club Brugge (A)0-3
- Jan 24 · v Lens (H)3-1
- Jan 21 · v Liverpool (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.