Coupe de France (France) · Mon, Jan 12 · 20:10 · Paris Saint Germain vs Paris
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 70%
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain70%80%−10
OursMarket
Draw16%13%+3
OursMarket
Paris14%7%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 70% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 50% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 93% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 20% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 87% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 92% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Jan 4 · v Paris (H)2-1
- Dec 20 · at Fontenay Vendée Foot (A)4-0
- Dec 17 · v Flamengo (H)1-1
- Dec 13 · at Metz (A)3-2
- Dec 10 · at Athletic Club (A)0-0
Paris
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Jan 4 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-2
- Dec 20 · at Raon l'Etape (A)3-0
- Dec 13 · v Toulouse (H)0-3
- Dec 7 · at Le Havre (A)0-0
- Nov 29 · v Auxerre (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.