Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Dec 6 · 20:05 · Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 70%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain70%74%−3
OursMarket
Draw19%16%+3
OursMarket
Rennes11%11%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 67% | −14 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 89% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 26% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 87% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 29 · at Monaco (A)0-1
- Nov 26 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)5-3
- Nov 22 · v Le Havre (H)3-0
- Nov 9 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)3-2
- Nov 4 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
Rennes
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Nov 28 · at Metz (A)1-0
- Nov 22 · v Monaco (H)4-1
- Nov 7 · at Paris (A)1-0
- Nov 2 · v Strasbourg (H)4-1
- Oct 29 · at Toulouse (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.