Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Apr 3 · 18:45 · Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 64%
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain64%75%−11
OursMarket
Draw19%16%+3
OursMarket
Toulouse17%9%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 62% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 49% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 91% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 25% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 89% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
WinLossWinWinWin
- Mar 21 · at Nice (A)4-0
- Mar 17 · at Chelsea (A)3-0
- Mar 11 · v Chelsea (H)5-2
- Mar 6 · v Monaco (H)1-3
- Feb 28 · at Le Havre (A)1-0
Toulouse
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Mar 21 · v Lorient (H)1-0
- Mar 15 · at Metz (A)4-3
- Mar 7 · v Olympique Marseille (H)0-1
- Feb 28 · at Rennes (A)0-1
- Feb 21 · v Paris (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.