Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 22 · 14:00 · Parma vs Bologna
Likeliest: Parma win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Parma37%——
OursMarket
Draw30%——
OursMarket
Bologna33%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Feb 16 · v Roma (H)0-1
- Feb 9 · at Cagliari (A)1-2
- Jan 31 · v Lecce (H)1-3
- Jan 26 · at Milan (A)2-3
- Jan 19 · v Venezia (H)1-1
Bologna
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Feb 14 · v Torino (H)3-2
- Feb 9 · at Lecce (A)0-0
- Feb 4 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
- Feb 1 · v Como (H)2-0
- Jan 29 · at Sporting CP (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Parma | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-5 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.