Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Feb 27 · 19:45 · Parma vs Cagliari
Likeliest: Parma win · 44%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma44%40%+3
OursMarket
Draw26%32%−7
OursMarket
Cagliari31%27%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 38% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 46% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 60% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 68% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
LossLossWinWinWin
- Feb 22 · at AC Milan (A)1-0
- Feb 15 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
- Feb 8 · at Bologna (A)1-0
- Feb 1 · v Juventus (H)1-4
- Jan 25 · at Atalanta (A)0-4
Cagliari
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Feb 21 · v Lazio (H)0-0
- Feb 16 · v Lecce (H)0-2
- Feb 9 · at Roma (A)0-2
- Jan 31 · v Hellas Verona (H)4-0
- Jan 24 · at Fiorentina (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Parma | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.