Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Aug 22 · 18:45 · Parma vs Cagliari
Likeliest: Parma win · 40%
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma40%37%+3
OursMarket
Draw27%32%−5
OursMarket
Cagliari34%31%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 40% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 68% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
LossLossLossWinWin
- Aug 14 · v Catania (H)2-0
- May 24 · v Sassuolo (H)1-0
- May 17 · at Como (A)0-1
- May 10 · v Roma (H)2-3
- May 3 · at Inter (A)0-2
Cagliari
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Aug 14 · v Arezzo (H)1-0
- May 24 · at AC Milan (A)2-1
- May 17 · v Torino (H)2-1
- May 9 · v Udinese (H)0-2
- May 3 · at Bologna (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Parma | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.