Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Mar 21 · 14:00 · Parma vs Cremonese
Likeliest: Parma win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 41%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma52%41%+11
OursMarket
Draw23%31%−8
OursMarket
Cremonese25%27%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 44% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 59% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 69% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 60% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Mar 13 · at Torino (A)1-4
- Mar 8 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
- Feb 27 · v Cagliari (H)1-1
- Feb 22 · at AC Milan (A)1-0
- Feb 15 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
Cremonese
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Mar 16 · v Fiorentina (H)1-4
- Mar 8 · at Lecce (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v AC Milan (H)0-2
- Feb 22 · at Roma (A)0-3
- Feb 15 · v Genoa (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Parma | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.