Coppa Italia (Italy) · Tue, Sep 1 · 16:00 · Parma vs Cremonese
Likeliest: Parma win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 45%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma50%45%+5
OursMarket
Draw28%29%0
OursMarket
Cremonese22%26%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 42% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 36% | 49% | −13 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 55% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 63% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 29 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Cagliari (H)0-1
- Aug 14 · v Catania (H)2-0
- May 24 · v Sassuolo (H)1-0
- May 17 · at Como (A)0-1
Cremonese
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 28 · v Modena (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at Empoli (A)0-1
- Aug 17 · v Sampdoria (H)2-0
- May 24 · v Como (H)1-4
- May 17 · at Udinese (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Parma | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-0-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.