Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Dec 27 · 11:30 · Parma vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 38%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma36%29%+7
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Fiorentina38%41%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 45% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 71% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 42% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Dec 13 · v Lazio (H)0-1
- Dec 8 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Dec 4 · at Bologna (A)1-2
- Nov 29 · v Udinese (H)0-2
- Nov 23 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-1
Fiorentina
LossWinLossLossWin
- Dec 21 · v Udinese (H)5-1
- Dec 18 · at Lausanne Sport (A)0-1
- Dec 14 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-2
- Dec 11 · v Dynamo Kyiv (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Sassuolo (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Parma | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.