Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Jan 18 · 11:30 · Parma vs Genoa
Likeliest: Parma win · 40%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma40%33%+7
OursMarket
Draw26%34%−8
OursMarket
Genoa35%33%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 38% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 48% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 67% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 67% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 66% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 50% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Jan 14 · at Napoli (A)0-0
- Jan 11 · at Lecce (A)2-1
- Jan 7 · v Inter (H)0-2
- Jan 3 · at Sassuolo (A)1-1
- Dec 27 · v Fiorentina (H)1-0
Genoa
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Jan 12 · v Cagliari (H)3-0
- Jan 8 · at AC Milan (A)1-1
- Jan 3 · v Pisa (H)1-1
- Dec 29 · at Roma (A)1-3
- Dec 21 · v Atalanta (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Parma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.