Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Feb 15 · 14:00 · Parma vs Hellas Verona
Likeliest: Parma win · 40%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%32%−6
OursMarket
Hellas Verona34%26%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 36% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 44% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 74% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 68% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 61% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Feb 8 · at Bologna (A)1-0
- Feb 1 · v Juventus (H)1-4
- Jan 25 · at Atalanta (A)0-4
- Jan 18 · v Genoa (H)0-0
- Jan 14 · at Napoli (A)0-0
Hellas Verona
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Feb 6 · v Pisa (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Cagliari (A)0-4
- Jan 26 · v Udinese (H)1-3
- Jan 19 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
- Jan 15 · v Bologna (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Parma | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.