Serie A (Italy) · Wed, Jan 7 · 19:45 · Parma vs Inter
Likeliest: Inter win · 42%
A 27% draw. The market says 19%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma32%11%+20
OursMarket
Draw27%19%+7
OursMarket
Inter42%70%−28
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 48% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 30% | +28 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 89% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 81% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 14% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Jan 3 · at Sassuolo (A)1-1
- Dec 27 · v Fiorentina (H)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Lazio (H)0-1
- Dec 8 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Dec 4 · at Bologna (A)1-2
Inter
WinLossWinWinWin
- Jan 4 · v Bologna (H)3-1
- Dec 28 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
- Dec 14 · at Genoa (A)2-1
- Dec 9 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
- Dec 6 · v Como (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Parma | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.