Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Feb 1 · 19:45 · Parma vs Juventus
Likeliest: Juventus win · 44%
A 28% home win. The market says 12%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma28%12%+15
OursMarket
Draw29%21%+8
OursMarket
Juventus44%67%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 45% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 33% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 88% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 79% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 16% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Jan 25 · at Atalanta (A)0-4
- Jan 18 · v Genoa (H)0-0
- Jan 14 · at Napoli (A)0-0
- Jan 11 · at Lecce (A)2-1
- Jan 7 · v Inter (H)0-2
Juventus
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Jan 28 · at Monaco (A)0-0
- Jan 25 · v Napoli (H)3-0
- Jan 21 · v Benfica (H)2-0
- Jan 17 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
- Jan 12 · v Cremonese (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Parma | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.