Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Dec 13 · 17:00 · Parma vs Lazio
Likeliest: Lazio win · 38%
A 35% home win. The market says 25%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma35%25%+10
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−3
OursMarket
Lazio38%45%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 40% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 75% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 36% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Dec 8 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Dec 4 · at Bologna (A)1-2
- Nov 29 · v Udinese (H)0-2
- Nov 23 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-1
- Nov 8 · v Milan (H)2-2
Lazio
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Dec 7 · v Bologna (H)1-1
- Dec 4 · v Milan (H)1-0
- Nov 29 · at Milan (A)0-1
- Nov 23 · v Lecce (H)2-0
- Nov 9 · at Inter (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Parma | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.