Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Sep 6 · 13:00 · Parma vs Monza
Likeliest: Parma win · 47%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma47%37%+9
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
Monza28%32%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 41% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 68% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 63% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 54% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 1 · v Cremonese (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Cagliari (H)0-1
- Aug 14 · v Catania (H)2-0
- May 24 · v Sassuolo (H)1-0
Monza
LossWinLossLossWin
- Sep 1 · at Torino (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · v Udinese (H)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Inter Milan (A)1-4
- Aug 14 · v Avellino (H)3-0
- May 29 · v Catanzaro (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Parma | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.