Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Apr 12 · 13:00 · Parma vs Napoli
Likeliest: Napoli win · 50%
A 24% home win. The market says 15%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma24%15%+8
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Napoli50%60%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 43% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 40% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 85% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 20% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Apr 4 · at Lazio (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Cremonese (H)0-2
- Mar 13 · at Torino (A)1-4
- Mar 8 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
- Feb 27 · v Cagliari (H)1-1
Napoli
WinWinWinWinWin
- Apr 6 · v AC Milan (H)1-0
- Mar 20 · at Cagliari (A)1-0
- Mar 14 · v Lecce (H)2-1
- Mar 6 · v Torino (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Parma | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.