Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Apr 25 · 13:00 · Parma vs Pisa
Likeliest: Parma win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 43%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma53%43%+10
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
Pisa21%26%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 39% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 74% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 57% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 62% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Apr 18 · at Udinese (A)1-0
- Apr 12 · v Napoli (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at Lazio (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Cremonese (H)0-2
- Mar 13 · at Torino (A)1-4
Pisa
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 19 · v Genoa (H)1-2
- Apr 10 · at Roma (A)0-3
- Apr 5 · v Torino (H)0-1
- Mar 22 · at Como (A)0-5
- Mar 15 · v Cagliari (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Parma | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.