Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 10 · 16:00 · Parma vs Roma
Likeliest: Roma win · 44%
We make it 72% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma28%14%+14
OursMarket
Draw28%22%+6
OursMarket
Roma44%64%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 47% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 41% | 45% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 36% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 86% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 78% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 18% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- May 3 · at Inter (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Pisa (H)1-0
- Apr 18 · at Udinese (A)1-0
- Apr 12 · v Napoli (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at Lazio (A)1-1
Roma
LossWinDrawWinWin
- May 4 · v Fiorentina (H)4-0
- Apr 25 · at Bologna (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
- Apr 10 · v Pisa (H)3-0
- Apr 5 · at Inter (A)2-5
| Last 10 games | Parma | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.