Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 24 · 13:00 · Parma vs Sassuolo
Likeliest: Sassuolo win · 45%
A 45% away win. The market says 37%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Parma28%35%−7
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Sassuolo45%37%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 50% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 55% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 63% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 65% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 49% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Parma
WinWinLossLossLoss
- May 17 · at Como (A)0-1
- May 10 · v Roma (H)2-3
- May 3 · at Inter (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Pisa (H)1-0
- Apr 18 · at Udinese (A)1-0
Sassuolo
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- May 17 · v Lecce (H)2-3
- May 8 · at Torino (A)1-2
- May 3 · v AC Milan (H)2-0
- Apr 26 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
- Apr 17 · v Como (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Parma | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.