Championship (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Partick Thistle vs Arbroath
Likeliest: Partick Thistle win · 67%
We make it 49% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Partick Thistle67%65%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Arbroath12%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 45% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Partick Thistle
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 19 · v Raith Rovers (H)0-0
- Sep 15 · at Stenhousemuir (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Ayr United (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · v Queen's Park FC (H)0-0
- Aug 21 · at Inverness Caledonian Thistle (A)1-1
Arbroath
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 25 · v Queen's Park FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Stenhousemuir (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Raith Rovers (A)0-4
- Sep 5 · v Dunfermline Athletic (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Livingston (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Partick Thistle | Arbroath |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-2 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.