Championship (Scotland) · Fri, Aug 7 · 18:30 · Partick Thistle vs Livingston
Likeliest: Partick Thistle win · 40%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Partick Thistle40%38%+2
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Livingston34%33%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 54% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Partick Thistle
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Aug 1 · at Greenock Morton (A)1-0
- May 25 · at St. Mirren (A)0-1
- May 21 · v St. Mirren (H)1-1
- May 15 · v Dunfermline Athletic (H)2-1
- May 12 · at Dunfermline Athletic (A)1-1
Livingston
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Aug 1 · v Queen's Park FC (H)2-0
- May 17 · v Kilmarnock (H)1-4
- May 12 · at Dundee United (A)0-0
- May 9 · at Dundee (A)0-3
- May 1 · v Aberdeen (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Partick Thistle | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 11% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.