Championship (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Partick Thistle vs Stenhousemuir
Likeliest: Partick Thistle win · 61%
We make it 49% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Partick Thistle61%64%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+3
OursMarket
Stenhousemuir13%14%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 44% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 86% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 36% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 82% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Partick Thistle
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 16 · at Ayr United (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Livingston (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Arbroath (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Raith Rovers (H)0-0
- Sep 15 · at Stenhousemuir (A)0-1
Stenhousemuir
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Raith Rovers (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Inverness Caledonian Thistle (A)0-2
- Sep 25 · at Ayr United (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Arbroath (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Partick Thistle (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Partick Thistle | Stenhousemuir |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-2 | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.