Challenger Pro League (Belgium) · Sun, Sep 13 · 17:15 · Patro Eisden Maasmechelen vs KAS Eupen
Likeliest: Patro Eisden Maasmechelen win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen39%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
KAS Eupen31%32%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 4 · at K. Beerschot V.A. (A)2-4
- Aug 29 · v Club NXT U23 (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring (A)1-2
- Aug 15 · v RSCA Futures U23 (H)2-1
- Apr 27 · at K. Beerschot V.A. (A)2-3
KAS Eupen
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Sep 5 · at Club NXT U23 (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · at KSC Lokeren-Temse (A)1-2
- Aug 15 · v Jong KRC Genk U23 (H)4-1
- Apr 17 · at RFC Liège (A)1-2
- Apr 10 · v K. Beerschot V.A. (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Patro Eisden Maasmechelen | KAS Eupen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.