Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 · Patronato vs Agropecuario Argentino
Likeliest: Patronato win · 56%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Patronato56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+1
OursMarket
Agropecuario Argentino15%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 37% | 35% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Patronato
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Tristán Suárez (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Güemes (H)2-0
- Oct 4 · at Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors (A)0-1
- Sep 27 · v San Martín de San Juan (H)3-0
- Sep 21 · at Nueva Chicago (A)1-1
Agropecuario Argentino
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Colegiales (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Quilmes Atlético Club (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v Ferrocarril Midland (H)0-0
- Sep 27 · at Atlanta (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Patronato | Agropecuario Argentino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-1 | 1-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.