Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · Pau FC vs Grenoble Foot 38
Likeliest: Pau FC win · 53%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pau FC53%53%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Grenoble Foot 3819%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pau FC
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Oct 16 · at Guingamp (A)2-1
- Oct 9 · v Stade Lavallois (H)3-2
- Sep 18 · v USL Dunkerque (H)2-0
- Sep 11 · at Montpellier (A)0-1
- Sep 4 · v Sochaux (H)1-1
Grenoble Foot 38
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 16 · v US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (H)0-2
- Oct 9 · at Montpellier (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · v Clermont Foot (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Rodez AF (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Annecy FC (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Pau FC | Grenoble Foot 38 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.