Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:30 · Paykan vs Shams Azar Qazvin
Likeliest: Paykan win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Paykan39%——
OursMarket
Draw36%——
OursMarket
Shams Azar Qazvin25%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 56% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 37% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paykan
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 10 · at Esteghlal FC (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Sanat Naft Abadan (H)2-0
- Sep 2 · at Zob Ahan (A)0-1
- Aug 28 · v Esteghlal Khuzestan (H)0-0
- Aug 24 · at Kheybar Khorramabad FC (A)3-2
Shams Azar Qazvin
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 10 · v Gol Gohar Sirjan (H)2-3
- Sep 6 · at Chador Malu Yazd (A)0-1
- Sep 1 · v Tractor FC (H)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Nassaji Mazandaran FC (A)2-0
- Aug 23 · v Aluminium Arak (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Paykan | Shams Azar Qazvin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.