Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Aug 9 · 12:30 · PEC Zwolle vs AFC Ajax
Likeliest: AFC Ajax win · 42%
A 34% home win. The market says 16%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle34%16%+17
OursMarket
Draw25%20%+4
OursMarket
AFC Ajax42%64%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 65% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 36% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 84% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 80% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 20% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- May 17 · v Feyenoord (H)0-2
- May 10 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-3
- May 3 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-0
- Apr 23 · at PSV (A)1-6
- Apr 12 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
AFC Ajax
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 6 · v Shelbourne (H)3-1
- Jul 30 · v FK Vojvodina (H)4-1
- Jul 23 · at FK Vojvodina (A)4-1
- May 24 · v FC Utrecht (H)0-0
- May 24 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.