Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Mar 1 · 11:15 · PEC Zwolle vs Ajax
Likeliest: Ajax win · 42%
A 36% home win. The market says 23%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle36%23%+13
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Ajax42%53%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 47% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 77% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 30% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Feb 22 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-1
- Feb 15 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-4
- Feb 7 · v FC Volendam (H)1-2
- Jan 31 · v Telstar (H)4-1
- Jan 24 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-2
Ajax
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Feb 21 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)4-1
- Feb 8 · at AZ (A)1-1
- Feb 1 · at Excelsior (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · v Olympiacos F.C. (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.