KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Wed, Dec 3 · 19:00 · PEC Zwolle vs AZ
Likeliest: AZ win · 39%
A 38% home win. The market says 21%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle38%21%+16
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
AZ39%54%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 59% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 46% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 79% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 28% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Nov 28 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at FC Groningen (A)2-2
- Nov 8 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)1-0
- Nov 2 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-8
- Oct 28 · at Helmond Sport (A)4-1
AZ
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Nov 30 · at FC Twente (A)0-1
- Nov 27 · v Shelbourne (H)2-0
- Nov 23 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-3
- Nov 9 · v PSV (H)1-5
- Nov 6 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.