Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Jan 17 · 17:45 · PEC Zwolle vs AZ
Likeliest: AZ win · 44%
A 33% home win. The market says 19%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle33%19%+14
OursMarket
Draw24%22%+2
OursMarket
AZ44%59%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 62% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 41% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 81% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 24% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Jan 10 · at FC Twente (A)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Excelsior (A)1-2
- Dec 13 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Feyenoord (A)1-6
- Dec 3 · v AZ (H)1-3
AZ
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Jan 14 · v Ajax (H)6-0
- Jan 10 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
- Dec 21 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)3-4
- Dec 18 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)0-0
- Dec 11 · at Drita (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.