Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Apr 12 · 12:30 · PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior
Likeliest: PEC Zwolle win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 43%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle53%43%+10
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Excelsior23%32%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 68% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 57% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 58% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
DrawDrawDrawWinLoss
- Apr 5 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-5
- Mar 21 · v NAC Breda (H)2-1
- Mar 13 · v FC Groningen (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Ajax (H)0-0
Excelsior
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Apr 4 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)0-2
- Mar 20 · at Heracles Almelo (A)1-1
- Mar 15 · at Feyenoord (A)1-2
- Mar 7 · v SC Heerenveen (H)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.