Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Mar 13 · 19:00 · PEC Zwolle vs FC Groningen
Likeliest: PEC Zwolle win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 33%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle45%33%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
FC Groningen32%41%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 62% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 59% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 67% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 45% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Mar 8 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Ajax (H)0-0
- Feb 22 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-1
- Feb 15 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-4
- Feb 7 · v FC Volendam (H)1-2
FC Groningen
LossLossLossLossWin
- Mar 7 · v Ajax (H)3-1
- Mar 1 · at FC Volendam (A)2-3
- Feb 22 · at FC Twente (A)1-2
- Feb 14 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-2
- Feb 8 · v PSV (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.