Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 17 · 12:30 · PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 48%
A 30% home win. The market says 22%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle30%22%+8
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Feyenoord48%56%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 44% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 78% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 28% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- May 10 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-3
- May 3 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-0
- Apr 23 · at PSV (A)1-6
- Apr 12 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Apr 5 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-5
Feyenoord
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- May 10 · v AZ (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v FC Groningen (H)3-1
- Apr 12 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · at FC Volendam (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.