Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Sep 13 · 14:45 · PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 70%
A tight one: we make it 70% for the away win. The market says 67%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle12%15%−3
OursMarket
Draw18%18%−1
OursMarket
Feyenoord70%67%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 30% | 33% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 85% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 15% | 18% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 4 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-3
- Aug 22 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-0
- Aug 16 · at FC Twente (A)1-3
- Aug 9 · v AFC Ajax (H)0-2
Feyenoord
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 9 · at Barcelona (A)1-5
- Sep 5 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)3-1
- Aug 30 · v ADO Den Haag (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at SC Cambuur (A)5-2
- Aug 16 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.