Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Dec 13 · 20:00 · PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard
Likeliest: PEC Zwolle win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 38%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle46%38%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−2
OursMarket
Fortuna Sittard30%36%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 64% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 62% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 51% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Dec 6 · at Feyenoord (A)1-6
- Dec 3 · v AZ (H)1-3
- Nov 28 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at FC Groningen (A)2-2
- Nov 8 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)1-0
Fortuna Sittard
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Dec 6 · v Ajax (H)1-3
- Nov 29 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-1
- Nov 22 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-0
- Oct 31 · at PSV (A)2-5
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.