Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Oct 18 · 10:15 · PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles
Likeliest: Go Ahead Eagles win · 50%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle25%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Go Ahead Eagles50%47%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v SC Cambuur (H)0-1
- Sep 18 · at FC Groningen (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v Feyenoord (H)0-7
- Sep 4 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-3
Go Ahead Eagles
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Groningen (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)2-5
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.