Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 3 · 12:30 · PEC Zwolle vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: PEC Zwolle win · 65%
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle65%64%0
OursMarket
Draw21%19%+1
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo15%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 64% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 36% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 80% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Apr 23 · at PSV (A)1-6
- Apr 12 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Apr 5 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-5
- Mar 21 · v NAC Breda (H)2-1
- Mar 13 · v FC Groningen (H)1-1
Heracles Almelo
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Apr 26 · v FC Volendam (H)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Ajax (H)0-3
- Apr 5 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-4
- Mar 20 · v Excelsior (H)1-1
- Mar 15 · at AZ (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.