Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Aug 29 · 19:00 · PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: PEC Zwolle win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 22%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle41%22%+19
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen36%56%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 67% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 63% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 44% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 78% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 28% | +25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
LossLossLossLossWin
- Aug 22 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-0
- Aug 16 · at FC Twente (A)1-3
- Aug 9 · v AFC Ajax (H)0-2
- May 17 · v Feyenoord (H)0-2
- May 10 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-3
NEC Nijmegen
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Aug 25 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)0-3
- Aug 19 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)1-3
- Aug 15 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)4-1
- Aug 11 · v Olympiacos FC (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · v SC Telstar (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.