Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:30 · PEC Zwolle vs SC Cambuur
Likeliest: PEC Zwolle win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle48%49%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
SC Cambuur27%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 18 · at FC Groningen (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v Feyenoord (H)0-7
- Sep 4 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-3
- Aug 22 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-0
SC Cambuur
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at ADO Den Haag (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at SC Telstar (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v FC Twente (H)1-4
- Aug 23 · v Feyenoord (H)2-5
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | SC Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.