Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Nov 28 · 19:00 · PEC Zwolle vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: PEC Zwolle win · 64%
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 23%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PEC Zwolle64%23%+40
OursMarket
Draw20%24%−4
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen16%53%−37
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 47% | +37 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 77% | −40 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 31% | +49 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PEC Zwolle
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Nov 23 · at FC Groningen (A)2-2
- Nov 8 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)1-0
- Nov 2 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-8
- Oct 28 · at Helmond Sport (A)4-1
- Oct 25 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-2
SC Heerenveen
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Nov 23 · v AZ (H)3-1
- Nov 8 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · at Ajax (A)1-1
- Oct 28 · at VVV-Venlo (A)3-0
- Oct 24 · v NAC Breda (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | PEC Zwolle | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.