Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sat, Oct 10 · 21:30 · Peñarol vs Progreso
Likeliest: Peñarol win · 73%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 73% for the home win. The market says 71%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Peñarol73%71%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Progreso9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 29% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Peñarol
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 4 · at Racing de Montevideo (A)1-0
- Sep 30 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Boston River (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Cerro (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Albion FC (H)3-1
Progreso
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Liverpool UY (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · v Racing de Montevideo (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Boston River (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Cerro (H)1-3
- Sep 7 · at Albion FC (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Peñarol | Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.