1. Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Sep 20 · 14:00 · Pendikspor vs Bodrum FK
Likeliest: Pendikspor win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pendikspor47%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Bodrum FK23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pendikspor
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 12 · at Boluspor (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Ümraniyespor (H)1-0
- Sep 1 · at Sarıyer (A)0-2
- Aug 28 · v Bandırmaspor (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Antalyaspor (A)3-2
Bodrum FK
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 12 · v Batman Petrolspor (H)4-0
- Sep 7 · at Mardin 1969 Spor (A)0-1
- Sep 3 · v Esenler Erokspor (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Manisa FK (A)0-0
- Aug 22 · v Muğlaspor (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Pendikspor | Bodrum FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.