1. Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 25 · 10:30 · Pendikspor vs Kayserispor
Likeliest: Kayserispor win · 53%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pendikspor20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Kayserispor53%50%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 33% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pendikspor
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 19 · at Bursaspor (A)0-2
- Oct 13 · v Van Spor Futbol Kulübü (H)1-2
- Oct 9 · at Sivasspor (A)1-4
- Sep 20 · v Bodrum FK (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Boluspor (A)1-1
Kayserispor
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 18 · v Batman Petrolspor (H)2-2
- Oct 14 · at Antalyaspor (A)4-0
- Oct 10 · v Manisa FK (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Mardin 1969 Spor (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · v İstanbulspor (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Pendikspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.