EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Sep 15 · 18:30 · Peterborough United vs Barnsley
Likeliest: Peterborough United win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Peterborough United43%43%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Barnsley30%31%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Peterborough United
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 12 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-2
- Sep 1 · v Stevenage (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Blackpool (A)0-4
- Aug 25 · at Watford (A)5-1
Barnsley
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Stevenage (H)1-5
- Sep 2 · v Blackpool (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Leyton Orient (A)3-1
- Aug 25 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Peterborough United | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.