League One (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:30 · Peterborough United vs Burton Albion
Likeliest: Peterborough United win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Peterborough United51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Burton Albion25%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Peterborough United
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Leicester City (A)3-1
- Oct 6 · v Ipswich Town U21 (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · at Stockport County (A)0-1
- Sep 22 · v Colchester United (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)0-2
Burton Albion
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)0-1
- Oct 6 · at Grimsby Town (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Huddersfield Town (H)1-3
- Sep 26 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)1-0
- Sep 22 · v Nottingham Forest U21 (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Peterborough United | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.