League One (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 11:30 · Peterborough United vs Sheffield Wednesday
Likeliest: Peterborough United win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 31%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Peterborough United53%31%+22
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Sheffield Wednesday23%44%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 65% | −15 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 56% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 69% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 41% | +28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Peterborough United
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 1 · v Stevenage (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Blackpool (A)0-4
- Aug 25 · at Watford (A)5-1
- Aug 22 · v Mansfield Town (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · at Bradford City (A)0-2
Sheffield Wednesday
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 1 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Bromley (H)7-2
- Aug 25 · v Wolverhampton (H)0-2
- Aug 20 · v Bradford City (H)0-1
- Aug 15 · at Leyton Orient (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Peterborough United | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.