Premier League (Egypt) · Tue, Oct 13 · 17:00 · Petrojet vs Wadi Degla
Likeliest: draw · 40%
Likely score: 1–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the draw. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Petrojet26%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw40%36%+4
OursMarket
Wadi Degla34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 60% | 64% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Petrojet
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Sep 16 · at El Gouna FC (A)2-1
- Sep 7 · v Al-Masry (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Zamalek SC (A)1-2
- Aug 26 · v Tala'ea El-Gaish (H)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Asyut Petroleum (A)1-1
Wadi Degla
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 15 · v Al-Mokawloon (H)0-2
- Sep 9 · at Modern Sport FC (A)1-2
- Sep 1 · v Canal SC (H)0-0
- Aug 28 · at ENPPI (A)3-1
- Aug 21 · v ZED FC (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Petrojet | Wadi Degla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.