Major League Soccer (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 18:30 · Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC
Likeliest: Philadelphia Union win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Philadelphia Union56%60%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+3
OursMarket
Charlotte FC20%19%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 40% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 76% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Philadelphia Union
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 15 · at Chicago Fire (A)3-1
- Oct 10 · v Real Salt Lake (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Orlando City SC (H)4-2
- Sep 20 · at Sporting Kansas City (A)4-3
- Sep 14 · at San Diego FC (A)5-0
Charlotte FC
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 14 · at Columbus Crew (A)1-3
- Oct 10 · v FC Dallas (H)3-2
- Sep 26 · v Chicago Fire (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at DC United (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at FC Cincinnati (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Philadelphia Union | Charlotte FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.